Fine overview. I’d like to add two more considerations: noise levels and the often overlooked or completely ignored issue of logistics/real estate. I happened to be at the 5th Transformative Flight Conference Jan, 2018 in SF, hosted by AHS and NASA Ames Research, where experts seemed particularly concerned about the prospects of operating noisy, aerial vehicles over the built environment. ‘Transformative’ is the term used for vertical takeoff to level flight (and back). VTOL is what the industry is aiming for, plus electric propulsion (as opposed to ICE-powered helicopters with complicated blade pitch controls). Think about it, the denser the built environment, the bigger the traffic problems, the higher the demand for air taxis… but also the more complicated (or nearly impossible) to get all the proper permits. If noise levels are not reduced to tolerable levels, it will put a damper on economics of scale. How many of them can be put into service determines production numbers.
I was the only invited civilian at the aforementioned conference, which was attended by scientists, engineers, industry specialists. My concerns about the logistics formed the basis for my presentation “Seamless 2D and 3D transit”. The SF-flavored artist impressions of dedicated vertiports used in several pitches (Uber a.o.) rule out the possibility of affordable aerial ride-hailing. The same rule applies: the denser the built environment, the more expensive the real estate. Fact is that you will need a lot of vertiports to have a service of any significance. And Uber already faces so many problems regarding all other aspects it sees as crucial to profitable ride-hailing on the long run. There is a fundamental flaw in Uber’s business model of operating in and outgoing road and air taxis. Instead of swapping EVs and eVTOLs, better use a ‘command module’ meant to be driven and airlifted! Since electric drive is what to aim for, weight is a paramount issue, which immediately excludes viability of the two-in-one contraptions like the ones Terrafugia has been working on for over a decade.
Left a picture of what I have in mind. Shopping malls are located at strategic places. Many of them feature large flat roof surfaces. Those can be used to park cars and to install solar panels (to recharge the EVs and eVTOLs). They may well be subject of a complete overhaul. Nearly every shopping center is destined to decline at some point. There’s a reason why the term ‘dead mall’ has become widespread.
