You might be right. For the same reason that ride-hailers like Uber will never become profitable. The key can be found in what’s called the modal mix, the choice of transport modes at the customer’s disposal. That mix is still more of a jungle out there, and the key itself may well be in ‘autonomy — yes or no?’ A ride-hailer may become profitable overnight if it will be able to get rid of its biggest cost factor, the human driver. Autonomy may also enable a new sort of transport service, which is more public transportation-like but then door-to-door 24/7, based on far more efficient vehicles. If so, then car makers do not have to share their ‘personal mobility’ pie with intruders like Uber. They only need to team up with each other. And that is what is happening right now.
Car makers prove to be fast learners. BMW and Mercedes have started their own MaaS-like service and more. https://www.electrive.com/2019/02/22/bmw-and-daimler-join-for-combined-mobility-services/
Personally, I was hoping that another sort of company (than a car maker) would have stepped up to the plate of bringing the Next-Gen vehicle we all seem to be craving for. But if anything was proven the last couple of years, then it is that the auto industry even has a hold on Silicon Valley, when it comes to personal transportation modes. Below: why Waymo and Uber have difficulty making their ride-hailing driverless.
